As if to reinforce the point made in my earlier post by Philip Tetlock about the unreliability of predictions, here's a magazine front page from twenty-five years ago I just stumbled across on Twitter . I love this image because it reflects so ... The Interpreter, 2 months ago
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Other than Sarah Palin and certain Russian astrologers, few people foresaw that Russia would intervene militarily in the Ukraine. The Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) Project at the College of William & Maryheld a snap poll among ...Washington Post, 3 hours ago
Michelle Pfeiffer was and is a major movie star. People magazine put her on the cover for its first 50 Most Beautiful People issue. The New York Times, no less, called her devastatingly gorgeous. So when Esquire magazine's December 1990 cover asked ...AdvisorOne, 2 weeks ago
Financial forecasters are as likely to be right as wrong. The archives of "The Australian Financial Review" show that the average strategist's forecast was for a 2.5 per cent drop in the market in 2013. In fact, the market added 15 per cent.Individual.com, 2 weeks ago Why Rational People Can't Succeed as Economic Forecasters Harvard Business Review, 2 weeks ago
Trying to impart meaning on something as complex as an election is futile, but that doesn't stop pundits and commentators from lining up to give it their best shot, writes Chris Berg. What does the Griffith by-election mean? What is its deeper, ...ABC Online, 4 weeks ago
A species in which everyone was General Patton would not succeed, any more than would a race in which everyone was Vincent van Gogh. I prefer to think that the planet needs athletes, philosophers, sex symbols, painters, scientists; it needs the ...Business Insider Australia, 1 month ago
AQUARIUS (Jan 20-Feb 18): Extravagant wigs became fashionable for a while in 18th-century England. They could soar as high as four feet above a woman's head. Collections of fruit might be arrayed in the mass of hair, along with small replicas of ...I-S Magazine Online, 1 month ago
Web Exclusive With considerable confidence, Professional Manager's politics pundit predicts uncertainty for the year ahead and even suggests an improbable alliance could be struck! Share this article The turn of the year is a busy time for ...Professional Manager, 2 months ago
The journalistic ritual for January is to offer predictions for the coming year, and The Interpreter will make its own contributions in coming days. But never forget that experts of all kinds have a poor track record for their predictions, as Philip ...The Interpreter, 2 months ago
expert : An expert, judging not by dictionary definitions but by common usage, is a young man who is hired by a newspaper to make prophecies which are never fulfilled and to express opinions which are ultimately proved to have been all wrong. ...American Prospect, 2 months ago
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