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About 44 results for "philip tetlock"

How to be a better forecaster

I've posted before onthe work of Philip Tetlock, but I can't get enough of him! (bolding below is mine) Tetlock assembled a group of more than 2,000non-expert volunteers under the banner of the Good Judgement Project Working in teams and ... Nasdaq, 3 weeks ago
Philip Tetlock's Quest for Better Forecasting Bloomberg View, 1 month ago
Finweek

Predicting the probability of a downgrade

Last month I reviewed the excellent book, Superforecasting by Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock. Now while we can't predict the future, we certainly can create a model for the probability of an event occurring and this book uses the Bayesian ...
 Finweek2 months ago

How to Fail Well

Amazonjoined the smart-phone industry two years ago with its Fire Phone. It was a mess from the start. Reviews were poor. Sales were dismal. Price cuts didn't work. Amazon stopped selling the Fire Phone last fall and took a $170 million writedown, ...
 FOXBusiness.com5 days ago

What if activists could more accurately predict political events?

by Think how useful it would be to make accurate forecasts of political events. Will there be a ceasefire in the Yemen war in the next six months? Will the Chinese government allow uncensored access to the Internet in the next year? Will there be ...
 Before It's News6 days ago
Bloomberg View

Your Summer Reading List

Memorial Day weekend is fast approaching. If you are anything like me, you are probably looking forward to delving into several new and recent book releases that could make for pleasant beach reading. This is the perfect time of year to take ...
 Bloomberg View6 days ago

How to Be a Better Futurist, and Why It Matters to Health Care

You need to become a better futurist. You need to up your game at least to prosumer level. Why? Because every decision you make, whether about your organization's strategy or your own career, is based on a view of the future, an implicit or ...
 Hospitals & Health Networks1 week ago
AdvisorOne

Mastering the Game of Imperfect Forecasting

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers, click the "Reprints" link at the bottom of any article. From the June 2016 issue of Research ...
 AdvisorOne1 week ago

Superforecasters See 23% Brexit Chance as Economy Wins Out

Chances of U.K. voting to leave dropped from 37% in April Citigroup, Societe Generale see higher chance of split with EU As he wrestled with whether to push for Britain to abandon the European Union earlier this year, Michael Gove dedicated ...
 Bloomberg1 week ago Superforecasters See 24% Chance of Brexit as Economy Wins Out  La Repubblica1 week ago

Decoupling Our Hunch-Making Mechanism

Humans are hunch-making machines. Were gloriously good at it. In fact, no one and nothing is better at coming up with a hunch. It's what sets us apart on our planet -- and, thus far, nothing weve invented has proven to be better suited to strike the ...
 Media Post1 week ago

Superforecasting For Active Investors

By Sammy Suzuki In a fiercely competitive world, active managers are constantly looking for ways to advance their performance edge. One good place to focus on is how to become better forecasters. If just looking at averages, the active ...
 Seeking Alpha2 weeks ago
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